China Economy

Containerised exports from China might see a sharp decline.

The dry bulk market has been given a glimpse of its ultimate nightmare scenario. “If the sub-prime crisis gets worse, containerised exports from China might see a sharp decline due to decreasing demand from importers.“Next to suffer, absolutely, would be the dry bulk market. With recession in the developed economies, decreasing exports out of China would reduce demand for dry bulk imports, including iron ore and coal. ”

In addition, China will almost certainly have to adjust the renminbi exchange rate mechanism later this year as the dollar and euro pull in different directions. Inflation is also hurting China 's competitiveness and is expected to prompt the departure of foreign investors in some areas of China this year. 

Six years on, it is pulling in $70bn in foreign direct investment annually and making inroads in high-technology fields. It has also commandeered an 11% share of global GDP and 10% of world trade. 

As for its foreign trade profile, Mr Young made clear that slowdown in the US was not necessarily as frightening a burden for China as it might appear, with trade with India and Russia rising 50% and 80% respectively last year, albeit from low levels.