Freight recovery could slow in early 2010, says bank
The forward looking element of Danske Bank's proprietary European Freight Forwarding Index has fallen significantly, indicating that the ongoing recovery in the freight market could slow down in the coming months. The bank stated that a common comment was that the freight market is expected to be slow at the beginning of 2010 but not to the same extent as in 2009. Danske Bank has kept its 2010 estimates unchanged but sees some downside risk if the European economy moves into a 'soft patch'.
The bank said that the 160 freight forwarders in its freight forwarding index were clearly giving a more negative picture about the future this month compared with last month. The index for expectations fell from 69 to 54. The index is still above 50 indicating expansion, but the drop in the index raised a 'red flag'. Even taking into account seasonality, the index seemed to show that freight forwarders were turning more negative.
The survey went onto state that some freight forwarders were really negative while others see the beginning of 2010 more as the summer of 2009, when volumes where below trend for a couple of months, but the underlying recovery was still in place.
Freight recovery could slow in early 2010, says bank